The cryptocurrency world is buzzing as Bitcoin rockets to $94,000, a price surge that has everyone talking. The immediate spark? Whispers of potential tariff relief between the U.S. and China, igniting a macro narrative that’s hard to ignore. But as thrilling as the headline is, the real story lies beneath the surface—in the blockchain data, market indicators, and institutional moves that reveal what’s truly driving this rally. Let’s dive deep into the numbers, unpack the signals, and explore what this moment means for Bitcoin’s future, all while connecting the dots to your own curiosity about the crypto market.
The Spark: Tariff Relief and the Macro Narrative
Picture this: it’s April 26, 2025, and the crypto market is electric. Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, has just hit $94,000, a level that feels like a milestone. The chatter on platforms like X is relentless—posts flood in, speculating about what’s fueling this climb. The leading theory? A potential easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China, with talks of tariff relief sending ripples through global markets.
This macro narrative isn’t just speculation. According to a Forbes article from April 2025, discussions between U.S. and Chinese trade officials have gained traction, with markets anticipating reduced economic friction (Forbes, 2025). Such developments often boost risk assets like Bitcoin, as investors seek opportunities in a more optimistic economic climate.
But while the tariff talk is a compelling headline, it’s only the surface. To understand this surge, we need to go deeper—into the on-chain data and market dynamics that tell a more nuanced story. This isn’t just about price; it’s about sentiment, behavior, and the forces shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Key Metric: The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis
One number stands out in the data: the short-term holder (STH) cost basis, sitting at $92,900. For those new to crypto, this metric represents the average price paid for Bitcoin by investors who bought within the last few months—the “new hands” in the market.
Why It Matters
Historically, the STH cost basis acts as a pivot point, according to research from Glassnode, a leading blockchain analytics platform. When Bitcoin’s price lingers below this level, recent buyers are “underwater,” fostering bearish sentiment. But when it climbs above and holds, it signals growing confidence, often marking a shift toward bullish territory (Glassnode, 2024).
Imagine you bought Bitcoin at $90,000 a month ago. If the price dips to $85,000, you’re in the red, and doubt creeps in. But when it surges to $94,000, you’re back in profit, and optimism takes hold. That’s the psychology at play here.
Bitcoin briefly poked above $92,900 during this rally, a promising sign. However, we’ve seen this before. Between July and September 2024, Bitcoin crossed this threshold only to fall back, unable to sustain the momentum. The key question now is whether this time is different. Sustained strength above $92,900 could confirm a real shift, like sunlight breaking through after a storm.
Profitability: Who’s in the Green?
Another critical indicator is the percent supply in profit, which jumped from 82.7% to 87.3% as Bitcoin hit $94,000. This metric shows the percentage of Bitcoin held at a profit—meaning its purchase price is lower than the current market price.
What This Tells Us
A 2023 CoinDesk analysis notes that a rising percent supply in profit often reflects increased buying activity during dips, as investors capitalize on lower prices (CoinDesk, 2023). The 4.6% increase suggests nearly 5% of Bitcoin’s supply changed hands during the recent correction, with savvy buyers snapping up coins at bargain prices.
Think of it like a bustling marketplace. While some panicked and sold during the dip, others saw opportunity, buying low. Now, with prices climbing, those dip-buyers are sitting on profits, smiling as their bets pay off.
This uptick is significant, but we’re not in “euphoria mode” yet. In past bull markets, this metric often stayed above 90% for extended periods, signaling overheated confidence. At 87.3%, we’re at a potential turning point, but caution remains warranted.
Short-Term Holder Profit-Loss Ratio: A Neutral Signal
The STH profit-loss ratio, now at 1.0, offers another lens. This ratio compares unrealized profits to losses among short-term holders. At 1.0, they’re breaking even—neither in profit nor loss.
Why It’s Significant
Historical data from CryptoQuant shows that in bear markets, the 1.0 level often acts as resistance. Why? When recent buyers reach break-even after being underwater, many sell to recoup their investment, increasing selling pressure (CryptoQuant, 2024).
It’s human nature. You buy Bitcoin at $90,000, watch it drop to $80,000, and feel the sting. When it climbs back to $90,000, the urge to sell and escape unscathed is strong. That selling can cap the rally—unless demand is robust enough to absorb it.
If this ratio pushes above 1.0 and stays there, it’s a bullish sign. It means the market is soaking up that selling pressure, with enough buyers to keep prices climbing. That’s the resilience we’re watching for.
Profit-Taking Surge: Can the Market Handle It?
With Bitcoin’s price jump, profit-taking has spiked. Hourly realized profits soared to $139.9 million, a 17% increase from the recent baseline.
The Big Question
Imagine a wave of sellers cashing out, locking in gains after the rally. It’s natural—people want to secure their profits. But the market’s strength depends on whether it can absorb this selling without buckling.
A Medium article on crypto market dynamics explains that strong rallies often see elevated profit-taking, but sustained price growth requires robust demand to offset it (Medium, 2024).
If Bitcoin holds steady or climbs despite this $139.9 million hourly sell-off, it’s a powerful signal of underlying strength. But if buying power fades, we risk a “dead cat bounce”—a temporary rally before a potential drop, as seen in past bear market cycles.
Who’s Selling?
The data points to short-term holders, with the STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) breaking above 1.0 for the first time since February 2025. This metric shows that recent buyers are, on average, selling at a profit.
A SOPR consistently above 1.0 is a hallmark of healthy bull markets, indicating steady demand supporting higher prices. For now, this breakout is a positive step, but consistency is key.
Futures Market: A Short Squeeze Brewing?
The futures market adds another layer of intrigue. Open interest in perpetual swaps surged 15.6% to 281,000 Bitcoin, signaling increased leveraged betting. Yet, funding rates turned negative at -0.023%, meaning short sellers are paying longs to maintain their bearish positions.
What’s Happening?
It’s a high-stakes poker game. As Bitcoin climbs, some traders are betting against it, convinced the rally won’t last. But if prices keep rising, those shorts could face a squeeze—forced to buy back Bitcoin to cover losses, fueling further gains.
A 2024 Bloomberg report on crypto derivatives notes that negative funding rates during rallies often precede short squeezes, as bearish bets get overwhelmed by upward momentum (Bloomberg, 2024).
This divergence—rising open interest with negative funding rates—sets the stage for volatility. A sustained push above $94,000 could trigger a cascade of short liquidations, amplifying the rally.
Institutional Demand: The ETF Boom
Perhaps the most compelling signal is the massive inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. On April 22, 2025, these ETFs saw a staggering $1.54 billion in net inflows—one of the largest single-day figures since their January 2025 launch.
Why It Matters
According to CoinTelegraph, ETF inflows reflect institutional capital entering crypto through regulated channels, significantly impacting supply-demand dynamics (CoinTelegraph, 2025). At 10% of Bitcoin’s daily spot volume, these inflows dwarf Ethereum’s ETF flows, which remain below 1% of ETH’s spot volume.
Picture Wall Street giants quietly allocating billions to Bitcoin, confident in its long-term value. This isn’t retail FOMO; it’s calculated, institutional conviction.
This $1.54 billion inflow signals renewed institutional interest, a vote of confidence that could anchor Bitcoin’s rally. It also explains why Bitcoin is outperforming Ethereum, which lacks comparable ETF-driven demand.
Ethereum’s Lag: A Tale of Two Markets
Why hasn’t Ethereum matched Bitcoin’s surge? The answer lies in ETF flows. While Bitcoin’s inflows dominate, Ethereum’s remain modest, reflecting weaker institutional appetite.
A Statista report from 2025 highlights that Bitcoin’s dominance in institutional portfolios stems from its perceived store-of-value status, while Ethereum’s role as a tech platform garners less immediate interest (Statista, 2025).
This divergence raises a big question: is Bitcoin pulling ahead as the institutional crypto of choice, or is Ethereum’s lag temporary? The answer could shape the crypto landscape for years.
Key Levels to Watch
| Metric | Current Value | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| STH Cost Basis | $92,900 | Pivot point; sustained strength above signals bullish shift. |
| Percent Supply in Profit | 87.3% | Up from 82.7%; indicates dip-buying but not yet euphoric (>90%). |
| STH Profit-Loss Ratio | 1.0 | Neutral; above 1.0 suggests market can absorb selling pressure. |
| Hourly Realized Profit | $139.9M | 17% above baseline; tests market’s ability to handle profit-taking. |
| STH SOPR | >1.0 | Recent buyers selling at profit; consistent >1.0 indicates bull market health. |
| Bitcoin ETF Inflows (Apr 22) | $1.54B | Massive institutional demand; 10% of daily spot volume. |
Reflecting on the Bigger Picture
Step back for a moment. You’re watching Bitcoin climb, maybe wondering if it’s time to jump in or hold off. The data paints a picture of cautious optimism: short-term holders are profiting, institutions are buying, and the market is testing key levels. It’s a moment that feels pivotal, like standing at a crossroads.
For readers, this rally isn’t just about numbers—it’s about understanding the forces at play. Are you swayed by the institutional FOMO, or cautious about the profit-taking surge? The $92,900 STH cost basis is the battleground to watch. If Bitcoin holds above it, the bulls may have the upper hand. If not, we could see a pullback.
A Final Thought: Bitcoin vs. Ethereum
The stark contrast in ETF flows—Bitcoin’s dominance versus Ethereum’s lag—raises a provocative question. Is this a temporary divergence driven by market narratives, or a sign of a deeper shift in how institutions view crypto? Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative seems to resonate more with big money, while Ethereum’s tech-driven promise lags in institutional appeal.
As you ponder your own crypto journey—whether you’re a trader, investor, or curious observer—consider what this means. Could Bitcoin solidify its lead as the crypto king, or will Ethereum catch up as its ecosystem matures? The answers aren’t clear, but the question is worth your attention.